With emergency session of euro finance chiefs in Brussels yesterday failed to break a deadlock on how to enroll investors in a second bailout without triggering a default, casting doubt on funds due from the International Monetary Fund next month darkens the economic prospects for Euro Zone. With tiff between France and Germany on bailing out Greece getting stronger the credit rating on Greece bond was cut to lowest in the world by S&P on 13th June. In absence of any bailout package Greece is left with no other option but to default on its payments. As Euro zone ministers failed on Tuesday to reach an agreement on how private holders of Greek debt should share the costs of a new bailout.
The lack of a deal pushed bond yields of Greece, Ireland and Portugal to their highest levels since the introduction of the euro in 1999, and Moody's on Wednesday placed France's top three banks on review for a possible downgrade, citing the banks' exposure to Greek debt. The only feasible solution for Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland is to disinvest the public sector companies to raise money and undergo controlled debt restructuring. Portugal, Spain and Ireland are engaged in planning out a controlled disinvestment and austerity measures, but Greece plan saw a set back with citizens carrying out national wide protest against disinvestment and reduction in government spending. This can be seen as a serious threat on Greece plan to prevent it from a possible default. Greece, whose 330 billion euros of debt amounts to 1.5 times its gross domestic product, has committed to an unprecedented 50 billion euros of asset sales by 2015, including a casino in Athens, a golf course on the island of Rhodes, toll roads and a stake in gas supplier Public Gas Co., known as Depa.
Spain plans to sell stakes in its state lottery and an airport operator to raise 14 billion euros in its biggest divestment ever. Ireland and Portugal want to raise 7.5 billion euros between them. Among Irish assets that may be sold: the National Stud, the state horse-breeding estate, and shares in Aer Lingus Group Plc, Ireland’s second-largest airline.
Restructuring of Greece's debt looked increasingly probable as Athens lacked the political will to carry out widespread privatizations of state assets and budget tightening. Greece can also follow Iceland by defaulting on its payment but it will have a systemic risk keeping in view the level to which the Europeans banks are exposed to Greece debt. If debt restructuring happens in a way that banks and markets are prepared for, even if not publicly but at least privately, it is very well containable.
But a restructuring which happens because the dialogue breaks down will be more complicated because that would suggest that there will be implications for Ireland, for Portugal and so on, and that could be more problematic down the line.
On 30th March;2011 our Indian cricket players gave a rollicking performance against Pakistan. We all were having goose bumps in our stomach thinking whether we would be able to notch up a victory against Pakistan or not? No doubt Indians have always staged victory against Pakistan in all the world cup semifinals matches and this time also we were keeping our fingers crossed. After all more than a game play it was the rivalry match for the country and in no way we could have afforded to digest the loss especially when it comes against Pakistan.
But history really repeated itself in the yesterday’s match and we came out successful enough in pulling down the Pakistanis again. All the cricket fanatics were waiting for this magnificent event from a very long time. First it was South Africa which proved to be the first resistance level for the country and then the victory over Pakistan was very important for us to set the stage for the finals against Sri Lanka.
Even, when the Indian cricket team was running feeble and it couldn’t perform in the World Cup-2010, all the cricket lovers and even the players went into the extreme stage of depression and despair. So shattered were our confidence levels that even the bookies bit their nails before plunging into any kind of bet in favour of the Indians. But with the incessant knock out of some of the big players like South Africa, West Indies, the confidence revived in the people again to think off the rosy future of the players. This was quite evident from the faces of the big personalities present there. After all Sonia ji, Manmohan Singh ji , big business tycoons like Vijay Mallya- the CEO of Kingfisher Airlines etc.( some of the venerated people of India and busy in raising the nose of the nation high)had spent the whole day out of their busy schedules to cheer for the country. Everyone’s faces were brimming with pride and ecstasy when we knocked the Pakistanis down. Wasn’t it the outburst of their confidence and sense of pride for the nation that brought them there?? Of course it was.
The same seems to have been happening with the Indian markets as well. After a plethora of setbacks and defeats, domestically as well as globally, all the investors were running dizzy about the future of the markets. Even the Nifty which was about to yield a breakout much earlier from its inverted double top pattern to the upside from 4th march;2011, went subdued after slightly breaching away the 5600 mark mildly by 15 points above. Global uncertainties exacerbated by the spate of crises, rise in crude oil prices, increasing inflation all shook the confidence of the investors so hard that made Nifty forming a unique ascending triangle pattern which we didn’t witness before. The investors had grown skeptical in pledging their bets in equities and overall future seemed melancholic and bleak for the markets, the same which happened with India in previous year’s world cup. But with the advent of the markets breaking off the crucial levels over 5690 seemed to have brought the cheers back again from the investors and they are again resting their hopes in the fact that the history for nifty has again started getting repeated from now onwards. With the ongoing rally and the improved global and domestic sentiments intact, we may expect the markets to show up the same rally which it showed from 7th sep;2010 onwards, when it strongly broke off the Bollinger bands on the upside and rose to the 6300.
Sterlite Industries, our VIRENDRA SEHWAG, after some slow deliveries in the prior matches couldn’t move past the score of Rs.170. Every time it tried to strike his bat beyond that score, it used to get knocked out by some of the magnificent deliveries by the sellers. But this time from 15th dec;2010, he seems to have started paying cautiously and steadily now taking up the score beyond Rs.170 now. Our Sachin Tendulkar, the HDFC BANK has been showing its usual good performance by giving a tangy flavor to the match right from 23rd march; 2011 onwards and playing sling shots to bag up the magnificent score of Rs.2364 from his usual average runs of Rs.2055. Even AXIS BANK, our Yuvraj Singh has been steadily showing a continuous improvement from 14th Jan; 2011 onwards, every time inching up an improvement in his score by Rs.39 on an average. I am sure that this time it would surely hit a half century. Even the middle order batsman of our team- HINDALCO seems to have sought guidance from his mistakes from his prior sluggish performance, where he was constantly dragged down by the sellers dropping his average score from Rs.247 to Rs.197 from 3rd feb;2011 onwards. I think our DHONI- JINDAL STEEL made up a blunder in putting him up on the 5th position. He himself would have taken the charge of the match otherwise our team wouldn’t have had to face such failures in the beginning. No worries Nifty- just keep on hitting higher highs this time and surely our NIFTY TEAM will win the cup of 6300 levels.
Will the Indians be able to score victory against Sri Lanka and bring back the cup home?? Whether the financial markets like India would be able to put up the same victory which our players have fancied against Pakistan??? These are some of the questions boggling into everybody’s mind. People just like with the Indian players, you keep your hopes and confidence revved up with markets as well and surely we will hit the higher marks this time and bring back the golden cup of 6300 home again. www.stockinvestmenttips.in
It is recommended to take a long position in this stock. As per the data analysis the level of 665 has acted as a first good resistance for this stock to close below it and when it has crossed that level Rs.673 acted as the another resistance target for the stock which it had hit. On 1st march 2011 when the stock jumped from the high of 640 to take the high of Rs.670, to close at 662, then the next session witnessed the stock to go up to the 674 levels. Even on 11th feb;2011, the stock gave up the rampant breakout from 669 to 689 even breaching off the levels of Rs.674.On 13th sep;2010 also the stock gave a breakout around the same levels to take another high of Rs.678 after 2 days. On 30th April; 2008 also the stock gave a significant breakout from the high of Rs.648 till Rs.689 passing by the Rs.680 mark. On 25th Jan; 2008, 27th Feb; 2008 and 19th march; 2008 the similar breakout took place. Similar breakout was on 30th Aug; 2007. Even on 26th sep;2006 the stock followed the similar pattern which it had been following currently evidencing the fact that even if the up move couldn’t be sustained by the stock testing 673-674 levels has nowhere gone. On 4th may; 2006 also the upside breakout took place in this stock carrying the prices higher up to 674 from the high level of 660 on the previous day. Hence the data patters are suggesting the increasing chances of the stock to go to the high levels of Rs.673-674. But since the volumes are moderate, another breakout cannot be seen so soon. The stochastic and RSI are showing the increased chances of the stock to continue with its up move in today’s session as well. Moreover, the stock seems to have been forming up the right head of the inverted head and shoulders pattern which it completed on 26th feb;2010 during the event of the turnaround of the 20DMA. At present the 20DMA has started showing the signs of turning around showing that the stock is expected to reach till its neckline which is resorting at 680 levels. So if the stock continues it’s up move today also, Rs.680 would be the level to decide the extent of the optimism in the stock. Another pattern to closely watch out for this stock is that of the ascending flag pattern and the imminent upside breakout after consolidating for some time is enough evidence of the ongoing bullish sentiments of the participants in this stock. The length of the flagpole is ranging at around 40 points and and the expected target price is also considered to be at Rs.690 from Rs.650 levels where the breakout took place (a movement of at least 40 points). Hence the stock is expected to hit the target levels of Rs.690 to give do justice to the inverted head and shoulders pattern. Right now a LONG position can be taken from the current levels till Rs.690 as the first target. Hence if the stock carries along with its breakout, another target would be that of Rs.690 to firmly watch out for this stock.
It is a common experience that the retail investors are wary of the stock tips. The main reason being the experts are biased towards BUY recommendations. This is so because of the inherent business interest of the expert’s firm. Most of these advisory firms are also in other business which links them to the firms that they are talking about. It is but obvious that you cannot give the share tip to sell when your revenues are dependent on that same company. It’s very hard to be objective when dishing out stock tips. In Indian share market it is more so because many advisory firm are siblings of the same group. A group which runs a bank also runs a securities or brokerage wing. Can you imagine security analyst of that firm talking negative about the functioning or stock of that bank. This is where the very objectiveness required in providing stock tips gets buried. What we get are therefore more than 95% buy calls. And therefore the market even never teaches the retail equity investor to short the stock or the market. So the BIG names in Equity advisory are there for their own business interest and are compelled to forget the retail, small investor. They are competent but the intent is missing. What are the alternatives for retail equity investors? The best is to become a pro or at least an amateur analyst on your own. Technical analysis of stocks or fundamental analysis is an art and science which can be learnt, no doubt. But the effort is required. This handicaps many. The second best alternative is to find a stock advisory service that is doing nothing else. Most probably it would be a smaller firm. But they will maintain the objectivity required for a retail stock tip. What really needs to be confirmed is their competency. Now, how to go about it? Most of these firms publish their accuracy reports. Secondly most of them publish their daily, weekly and monthly calls on their websites. One needs to track them for a month and so and then get attached with them. The fees they charge are small. The risk is not the fees but the money you will loose because of wrong stock tips. Here your tracking of their website plays the major role. In addition one can also look into their other reports and publications. What else is on the site? How intense is the research? How much they update? The updating speaks volume of their team. The quality of other reports does the same. How innovative their other reports are? Are they doing some things differently for their retail clients or they are one among equals? How do you find such sites? Listen if you are looking for stock tips or share tips do not go and type the same words in the search engine. You would find so many of them that your research would be unending. See we need to apply common sense. If anyone is furbishing advice about any stock, the stock is present in the market. Therefore that advisor should know about the market too. Therefore I would advice you to search for, in Indian scenario for NIFTY or Nifty 50 stocks, the market index. If the advisor is working on it, they are serious about their responsibility and role of advisors. This is one of the ways, one can device many such ways. Then if you find a site, just do not think much, pay that Rs.5000 to Rs. 10000 that they charge for the quarter and trust them completely. They also need to retain you after a quarter. The Psychology is, no one dupes you for small sums if they are serious about their business. Do not keep changing you advisor too often. If you have found one serious, responsible and objective one, stick to it till their business interest diversifies and they too loose OBJECTIVNESS.
There seems to be some conflict going on in the charts of the Nifty. Where on one hand we are hawkish on the 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages, on the other hand the formation of an ascending triangle pattern is the other major hint which are keeping our views intact with the upcoming bullishness in the market in the forthcoming sessions.20 daily moving average have started giving out the hint of receding which was never seen over the charts before. Just about a month before we were running quite bullish on the markets with the Nifty expected to break off the 50DMA to the upside, a regular feature which was witnessed on the daily charts of Nifty from the past 2 years. But who knew that 2012 would carry lots of devastating news for us?? Whether it has been the Korean crises, Libyan crises, rising inflation, RBI coming out with the new set of monetary measures to cool inflation – all of them have had their sluggish impact which battered the markets down whenever it tried to resort above the 20DMA. With the advent of the disclosure of the monetary policy review of RBI as on 17th march; 2011 wherein it has hiked the repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25bps bringing them on to the levels of 6.75 and 5.25 percent with the CRR remaining unaltered. The disclosure of this monetary policy symbolizes that on one hand the RBI is initiating its move to curb inflation; on the other hand it is trying to keep the liquidity intact so that the rise in the interest levels may not go beyond the uncontrollable levels. This view can be bolstered from the fact that the commercial banks are still not proposing to hike their lending and deposit rates. This means that the fall in the commodity and the crude oil prices haven’t given any respite to the markets and the inflation level is still hovering beyond the expected limits. The move of the central bank to keep the liquidity afloat is mandatory given the current situation that the government is already reeling into deficits which is expected to come down to 4.6%. But given the current scenario, the situation where the crude oil prices are already at 112$ per barrel, the upside pressure of inflation is still persisting. Nifty has broken below the 20DMA at 5460 in today’s trading session and is still staying within the proximities of the flag pattern. The upside and downside levels are descending day by day and the increased divergence of the lower highs and lower lows witnessed in today’ session is even circumventing the market to initiate any upside rally in the forthcoming sessions. For the next coming days 5500 and 5350 are supposed to act as the crucial caps for Nifty which would be very difficult to cross by unless some spate of boisterousness is felt from the global markets.
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